There is a path to a Raila presidency. In this election, President Uhuru Kenyatta is playing defense and Raila is on the offensive. Any day of the week, I would take a better offense to a great defense. Raila’s path to victory will be instigated by the following:
A United Mulembe vote
In 2013, Musalia Mudavadi garnered 31% of the vote in Bungoma, 49% in Vihiga and 12% in Trans Nzoia. He will therefore add a substantial chunk to the NASA vote hunting basket. This means in this election, the Western bloc will- almost to the last man- be speaking with one voice.
Musalia’s presence could also improve the turn out in Western Kenya. And it’s worth noting that the Mudavadi of 2017 appears full of energy and not the once low-energy Mudavadi. This is key to exciting the base to turning out in large numbers to vote. The contest between Bonny Khalwale and Oparanya for Kakamega Governor seat will also work to Raila’s advantage as every vote counts.
25 Years since Death of Masinde Muliro
The election in August will be held on the 8th, 6 days removed from the 25th anniversary since the demise of Masinde Muliro’s death. It is believed before his death, Prophet Elijah Masinde beseeched Muliro to join hands with Jaramogi in order to build a network of support for his eventual run for the presidency.
Will this election be the culmination of Masinde Muliro and Elijah Masinde’s dreams, where they would take a Luo to State House and plant the seed for a possible Luhyia president in the coming years?
Ali Hasan Joho has earned the nickname 001 or the Sultan and with it, his clout as the face of Coast politics has risen. And this could not be far-fetched. Ever since the days of Emmanuel Karisa Maitha, no leader or politician has captured the imagination of not only Coast people, but the country at large,
while being an irritant to the government of the day.
In an election where turn out will be the deciding factor, Joho’s grassroots mobilization acumen will be put to test come August 4th. Will he translate this new found star power into a massive Get Out to Vote Machinery for Raila? In 2013, Mombasa County registered one of the lowest turn outs in the country at 67%. Kilifi’s turnout was not any better at 65%. In Lamu, Raila Odinga had a slim margin of victory over Uhuru Kenyatta; 52% to 40%.
On average, the turn out in Coast was at 75% while Raila’s average votes stood at 72%
In 2017, Raila Odinga’s path to victory will have to start with the average turn out growing to 81% and his basket averaging 75% of the Coastal votes.
Central Province Onslaught.
The fact that Raila Odinga’s name is on the ballot will motivate Central Kenya to turn out in large numbers and vote to the last man. In 2013, the average turn out in Central Kenya was 92% with Uhuru winning 95% of those votes.
This year, the turn out in central province will most likely grow to 93%. With this, Uhuru stands to get almost the same 95% votes as he did in 2013. With Kiambu being a more cosmopolitan town, it is possible this will be Raila’s best county out central province. In 2013 he garnered 8% of the votes and this year, he could go as high as 12%. This is where he needs to make the play to stop any bleeding caused by the increase in turn out. On average, it would be a miracle if Raila gets more than an average of 3% in Central Kenya.
A lot has been said about Kalonzo Musyoka. He has been called all sorts of names but give the devil his due. When it comes to walking the talk in terms of votes, no one does it better than Kalonzo; well apart from Raila. In 2007 even with the contest pitting Raila and Kibaki, Kalonzo managed to win Eastern province. In 2013, he delivered the Kamba nation to the Cord basket. I doubt anything has changed.
In 2013, the average turn out in the 3 Kamba counties of Kitui, Makueni and Machakos stood at 84% with Baba winning an average 85% of the vote.
Still in Eastern, Meru is an interesting county and one where any early returns could indicate what kind of night both Raila and Uhuru will be having. With the Miraa issue and the belligerence pitting Kiraitu Murungi and Peter Munya, there is likelihood Meru could play the spoiler in this election.
Overall in Eastern in 2013, the turn out averaged 87%. Raila’s average was 44% with Uhuru garnering 50%
In August, it is possible turn out could climb to 88%.
Arguably this is Raila’s last call. He knows it. We know it. Everybody knows it. As such, anybody who has ever had a passion for Raila presidency, more so in Nyanza, will be motivated to vote.
In 2013, the average turn out in Luo Nyanza was 92%. Kisii zones averaged 87%. In Luo Nyanza, baba got an average 98% of the vote. In Kisii, the average vote was 74%. Overall, turn out in Nyanza was 90% with Baba getting 86%
Most likely this year, the turn out in Luo Nyanza will climb to 95%. I don’t think the margin of victory will be any better than it was in 2013. In Kisii Nyanza, with a more united front around Raila, I predict the average Nyanza turn out climbing to 93% and baba scoring 90%.
The Rift Valley Juggernaut and Isaac Rutto.
Isaac Rutto has been handed the most difficult task of getting Raila over the hump in the South Rift. In 2013, the average turn out stood at 89%. Raila’s average score was 26% while Uhuru scooped an average of 68%.
Raila has to improve his fortunes in Trans Nzoia, a county he won by 46% to Uhuru’s 37%. The presence of Mudavadi and Rutto in his fold should help shore up the votes in the county and if he can stretch the win to 63%, then he will be in for a good night.
I will not underestimate the impact Rutto may have in Bomet and Kericho. What Rutto does well is in his messaging and he hits hard on issues that affect the mwananchi. This may get NASA a bigger chunk of votes that CORD received in 2013. Back then in Bomet, Raila managed 5% and 7% in Kericho.
The Maasai will determine the mood of the electorate on the other side of the Rift Valley. Narok and Kajiado have been hotly contested regions in previous elections, but for one reason or the other, NASA seems to have an advantage with the Maasai. In 2013, Uhuru won in
Kajiado, 52% to Raila’s 44 %. In Narok, it was advantage Raila 50% to 46%.
This year, Kajiado will most likely remain Uhuru zone, and Narok a Raila zone.
7. North Eastern.
This will most likely play out as was the case in 2013. Raila had the edge in Garissa (49%) and Wajir (50%) with Uhuru victorious in Mandera (93%)
If this remains the case, then in total, Raila will get 134,806 in the province and Uhuru getting 241,911
In 2013, Raila had a slight edge (49%) to Uhuru 47%. This year, the ground in Nairobi seem to have shifted and Rail will most likely garner 55% of the vote.
The prediction we make is that if all the above assumptions hold, Raila will win the presidency with 51%
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